Macroeconomic
Outlook July 2016
Walking on a Tightrope
post Brexit
GDP Growth 2016F1
1.8%
1.6%
0.6%
6.5%
4.2%
 
US
EUR
JPN
CHI
EM
Economic Growth
On Track
Emerging
Markets
More Resilient
Than in the Past
Stronger labor market and
less pressure on Fed to
raise rates…
EMs remain the growth
champions…
…should lead to a stable
economic growth
...but with major differences
among countries
Strong Dollar
presidential election
RISKS
China slowdown
RISKS
 
The Economy
Remains Fragile
Japan is more and more
dependent on policy
actions…
…to improve the inflation
outlook and support
growth
Slow reforms and
strong Yen RISKS
Worsening Outlook
After Brexit
 
 
Growth on Target, But
with Risks to Monitor
ECB support should
stabilize financial market
conditions…
Economic rebalancing on
track…
...but risk of accelerated
debt needs to be managed
…while the political
debate on the future of
the EU evolves
Political and reform
implementationRISKS
Bad Execution in
Reforms RISKS
 
Global Scenarios
Scenarios & Probabilities
Fiscal and Political Action
Structural reforms,
lower
imbalances
Quality Growth 5%
Different speed in
fiscal policy
and reforms
Country Divergences 20%
BREXIT
Global Macro Shock
SHORT-TERM
Central Bank Support
Political paralysis,
high debt,
low productivity
Low/Low Trap 60%
Political Mistakes
Euro break up
and China
hard landing
Shocks and Break Up 15%
Geopolitical Factors
Electoral Cycle
2016 - Austria, Italy, US
2017 - France, Germany, Netherlands
China Hard Landing
Monetary Policy
Mistakes in DM
Currency War
Market Expectations
Overcapacity Cut
Debt Issue
GLOBAL RISKS
 
Source: Global Asset Allocation Research and Financial Communication, Pioneer Investments.
1 Source: Pioneer Investments forecasts for all countries ex Emerging Markets. IMF forecasts for Emerging Markets, World
Economic Outlook. Data available as of July 4, 2016
Important Information
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Pioneer Investments and is as of December 10, 2015. The views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Pioneer Investments, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and there can be no assurances that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading on behalf of any Pioneer Investments product. There is no guarantee that market forecasts discussed will be realized or that these trends will continue. Investments involve certain risks, including political and currency risks. Investment return and principal value may go down as well as up and could result in the loss of all capital invested.
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Date of First Use: July 20, 2016.